Privredni izveštaj - Bankari / Economic Report - Bankers
četvrtak decembar 14, 2017
CULTURE
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Bankarima neophodna stabilna regulativa i odgovorni klijenti

Veroljub DugalicČak 19.000 preduzeća duže od tri meseca ne namiruje svoje rate za kredit, pa su ih banke klasifikovale kao najgore dužnike D kategorije. Koliki problem predstavljaju nenaplativi krediti, kada je ukupni kapital banaka u Srbiji oko 5,5 milijardi evra i da li je jedini spas u oživljavanju privrednih aktivnosti – objašnjava dr Veroljub Dugalić, generalni sekretar Udruženja banaka Srbije.

Koliko problematični krediti ugrožavaju bankarski sistem?

Situacija je takva da je iznos nenaplativih kredita, gde su kašnjenja duža od 90 dana, više od 250 milijardi dinara. Kada se na to doda 100% rezervisanja koje banke moraju da izdvoje, cifra je 5 milijardi evra opterećenja bankarskog sektora zbog problematičnih zajmova. Banke imaju čak i veće rezerve od zakonski propisanih – do 125%. Zato je bankarski sistem stabilan, iako loši plasmani otežavaju poslovanje i stvaraju troškove. Osnovni problem je nesolventna privreda. Jedino rešenje je u povećanju društvenog proizvoda, a potom u jačanju discipline plaćanja. Strane direktne investicije su značajne jer zapošljavalju radnike, imaju realnu proizvodnju i pozitivan uticaj na rast privrede. U Srbiji je BDP niži danas nego 1995. godine, kada smo bili pod sankcijama.

Koji su elementi stabilnog finansijskog tržišta?

To bi bili jasni, nedosmisleni propisi i regulativa koja se ne menja često. Takođe, neophodno je da država stvori uslove za sprovođenje tih propisa i za kažnjavanje onih koji ih ne poštuju. Kada se ambijent poslovanja definiše, onda imate izgrađen sistem koji je samoregulativan i državu koja ga nadgleda.

Šta su pozitivni i negativni aspekti fiksnog kursa?

Režim fluktuirajućeg kursa je potpuno primeren okolnostima u kojima se nalazimo. Zagovornici fiksnog kursa smatraju da je to način kojim se potpuno definišu obaveze u stranoj valuti, olakšava kalkulacija i povećava predvidivost troškova. Negativna strana fiksnog deviznog kursa je što se čitava fiskalna politika podređuje održanju tog kursa, što brzo dovede do situacije velikog pritiska na deviznom tržištu. Kada to izazove nestašicu u ponudi, jer je valuta precenjena, pojavljuje se crno tržište, valuta devalvira i dolazi do skoka cena. To nije tržišna kategorija i dugoročno stvara veće probleme od trenutnog pozitivnog efekta. Zato je promenjivi devizni kurs sa malim oscilacijama najoptimalnije rešenje. Mi sada imamo relativno stabilan kurs sa minimalnim kolebanjima koja su normalna u tržišnoj ekonomiji. Problem je što se u Srbiji očekuje da kurs reši probleme koje ne može i ne sme da rešava. Funkcija kursa nije da podstiče izvoznike, kako neki smatraju. U tom slučaju, kurs postaje samo jedan instrument ekonomske politike. Mismo to imali u praksi i znamo da se neslavno završilo. Ideja da će se naglim rastom deviznog kursa podstaći izvoz, nije realna. Nerealna su i očekivanja da će kurs rešiti teške probleme kojima država mora da doskoči na druge načine – kroz podsticaje, subvencionisane kredite, poreske olakšice i slične mere.

(Nastavak teksta u štampanom izdanju)

 

Bankers need stable regulation and responsible customers

19,000 companies have not paid their credit rates for more than three months and the banks have classified them as Category D worst debtors. Dr. Veroljub Dugalić, General Secretary of the Association of Serbian Banks, explains how big is the problem of non-performing loans, taking into consideration that the total capital of banks in Serbia is around 5.5 billion EUR, and answers to the question whether the revival of economic activities is the only salvation.

How do problematic credits threaten the banking system?

The situation is such that the amount of non-performing loans with delay periods of over 90 days amount to over 250 billion. When you add 100% of reserves that banks must set aside, the figure is a 5 billion EUR burden for the banking sector related to problematic loans. Banks have even larger reserves than the legally prescribed, up to 125%. That is why the banking system is stable, even though bad loans hinder business and create expenses. The main problem is the insolvent economy. The only solution is to increase the gross domestic product, and then to strengthen the payment discipline. Foreign direct investments are significant, because they employ workers, provide real production and have a positive impact on the economic growth. Serbia's GDP is lower nowadays than in 1995, when we were under sanctions.

What are the elements of a stable financial market?

They are clear, unambiguous rules and regulations that do not change often. The State must also create the conditions for the implementation of these regulations and punish those who violate them. When the business environment is well-defined, there is a self-regulating system and State institutions that supervise it.

What are the positive and negative aspects of the fixed exchange rate?

The floating exchange rate is completely suitable for our present circumstances. Supporters of the fixed exchange rate believe that it is a way to completely define the obligations in foreign currency, facilitating thus the calculation and prediction of expenses. The negative side of the fixed exchange rate is that the whole fiscal policy is subordinated to maintaining that course, which quickly leads to great pressures on the foreign exchange market. If the currency is overvalued, there will be a shortage of offer, black market will appear, the currency will devalue and prices will suddenly rise. It is not a long-term market category and it creates problems that are greater than the temporary positive effects. Therefore, the variable exchange rate with small fluctuations is the optimal solution. We now have a relatively stable exchange rate with minimal fluctuations that are normal in a market economy. The problem is that in Serbia the exchange rate is expected to solve problems that it can not and may not solve. The function of the exchange rate is not to encourage exporters, as some believe, because in that case, the exchange rate would become a mere instrument of the economic policy. Some years ago we put those ideas in practice, and we are all familiar with their negative results. The idea that the rapid growth of the exchange rate encourages exports is not real. It is unrealistic to expect that the exchange rate will solve the difficult problems that the State has to manage in other ways - through incentives, subsidized loans, tax deductions and other similar measures.

(Continue reading more in printed edition)

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