Privredni izveštaj - Bitka / Economic Report - Battle
četvrtak decembar 14, 2017
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Bitka za stabilnost cena

Jorgovanka TabakovićNa čelo Narodne banke Srbije došla je pre nešto manje od godinu dana. Dočekali su je problemi sa kojima se zemlja suočava već decenijama − inflacija, pad kursa dinara, slaba ekonomija, problemi sa otplatom kredita u švajcarskim francima... Uspela je da obuzda sunovrat domaće valute, a trenutni skok evra pravda negativnim stavom MMF-a o stanju u javnim finansijama. To što je žena, na do sada isključivo muškoj poziciji, ne smeta joj da se uhvati u koštac sa problemima. Sa guvernerkom Centralne banke Jorgovankom Tabaković razgovarali smo o uvek aktuelnim ekonomskim temama − monetarnoj politici, dinaru, inflaciji i saradnji sa ostalim institucijama države.

Kako ste uspeli da stabilizujete vrednost domaće valute i kakve su procene do kraja ove godine?

Od sredine prošle godine, monetarna politika je usmerena, pre svega, na smanjivanje inflacije i njeno svođenje na granice cilja. Nakon značajnog intervenisanja iz deviznih rezervi, u prvom polugodištu prošle godine, uz rast inflacije koja je uzimala zamah, Narodna banka je odlučno povećala stepen restriktivnosti monetarne politike kako bi inflaciju vratila na sigurnu silaznu putanju. Promenili smo i glavni smer operacija na otvorenom tržištu da bismo povukli višak dinarske likvidnosti i sprečili da on stvori nove pritiske na inflaciju i devizno tržište. Takođe, jasno i javno smo rekli da ćemo precizno pratiti sve novčane tokove, i dinarske i devizne, i da ćemo intarvencije Narodne banke na deviznom tržištu odmeravati prema realnim potrebama tržišta i njegove stabilnosti, a ne prema pokušajima nekih aktera da zarade na promenama kursa. To, naravno, i činimo. Pokazali smo, dakle, pre svega odlučnost Narodne banke da vodi monetarnu politiku koja će beskompromisno biti usmerena na smanjivanje inflacije i prvi rezultati toga bili su vidljivi već u septembru prošle godine kroz postignutu stabilnost deviznog tržišta i smanjivanje mesečnih stopa inflacije koje je započelo još u novembru 2012. Slabljenje dinara tokom maja i juna, kao i u slučaju gotovo svih valuta u regionu, u najvećoj meri bilo je posledica najava FED-a o postepenom smanjivanju tempa kvantitativnog popuštanja, a u našem slučaju je na to dodatno uticala i negativna ocena MMF-a o stanju javnih finansija. Na povećanje deprecijacijskih pritisaka NBS je reagovala intervencijama na međubankarskom deviznom tržištu i povećanim obimom sterilizacije. Ublažavanje napetosti na međunarodnom finansijskom tržištu, kao i usvajanje dodatnih mera fiskalne konsolidacije, čime je potvrđena odlučnost Vlade da obezbedi održivost javnih finansija na duže staze, dodatno su doprineli stabilizaciji deviznog kursa. S obzirom na preduzete mere fiskalne konsolidacije, određivanje roka za početak pregovora sa EU, smanjenje spoljnotrgovinskog deficita, kao i stabilizaciju situacije na globalnim finansijskim tržištima, u narednom periodu očekujemo smanjivanje pritisaka na domaću valutu. Kao i do sada, kada je potrebno, NBS će delovati u oba smera , i kupovinom i prodajom deviza, da bi ublažila prekomerne dnevne oscilacije kursa I obezbedila nesmetano funkcionisanje deviznog tržišta.

Prošle godine smo imali dvocifrenu inflaciju. Da li će Narodna banka uspeti da zadrži rast cena u planiranom okviru?

Međugodišnja stopa inflacije će nastaviti da se smanjuje i sasvim sigurno će se do oktobra vratiti u granice cilja od 4±1,5 odsto. Na to će uticati donete mere monetarne politike, nova poljoprivredna sezona kroz niže cene hrane, niska agregatna tražnja i započeta fiskalna konsolidacija. Međutim, cilj Narodne banke nije samo da smanji inflaciju, već da je dugoročno održi na niskom nivou, jer su cenovna i makroekonomska stabilnost osnov za stvaranje dobrog poslovnog i investicionog ambijenta i za rast ekonomske aktivnosti na održivim osnovama.

Kakva je saradnja ekonomskog dela Vlade Srbije i Narodne Banke?

Imamo dobru saradnju, pre svega sa Ministarstvom finansija, redovno razmenjujemo sve relevantne informacije, što nam pomaže da donosimo pravovremene i dobro odmerene mere. Ipak, za ostvarivanje projekcije inflacije za Narodnu banku je značajan program korekcije regulisanih cena, koji Vlada još nije obelodanila. Takođe, na duži rok, trebalo bi doneti i razraditi program mera za stabilnost tržišta hrane. Da Vas podsetim, u drugoj polovini prošle godine, na primer, rastu međugodišnje stope inflacije cene hrane su doprinele čak sa 65 odsto.

(Nastavak teksta u štampanom izdanju)

 

The Battle for the Stability of Prices

She took over the reins of the National Bank of Serbia less than one year ago. She had to face problems that the country has had for decades, including inflation, fall of the Dinar exchange rate, bad economy, problems with the payment of credits in Swiss Francs etc. She succeeded to stop the collapse of the national currency and considers that the current rise of the Euro was caused by the negative opinion of the IMF about the public finances. The fact that a woman is occupying a position that only men have had so far does not prevent her to face these problems. We talked with Mrs. Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor of the Central Bank of Serbia, about current economic subjects: monetary policy, the Dinar, inflation and collaboration with other state institutions.

How did you succed to stabilize the value of the national currency and what is your forecast until the end of the year?

From the middle of last year, monetary policy has been oriented, first of all, to reducing the inflation and bringing within the targeted limits. After carrying out an important intervention in the currency reserves during the first half of last year, inflation gathered momentum and the National Bank decisively raised the level of restrictivity of monetary policy, so that inflation would go back to a safe descendi-ng track. We changed the main direction of operations on the open market, in order to withdraw the surplus of Dinar liquidity, preventing that it exerts new pressure on the inflation and currency market. We clearly announced that we will follow up all currency flows, in Dinars and foreign currency, and that interventions by the National Bank in the currency market would be directed to the real necessities and the stability of the market, and not to the attempts by certain factors to profit from the fluctuations in the exchange rate. That is what we are doing, of course. We showed, first of all, the determination of the National Bank to apply a monetary policy that clearly aims to reduce inflation and the first results of that policy could be seen in stability of the currency market, which was achieved in September of last year, as well as in the reduction of inflation monthly rates as of November 2012. The depreciation of the Dinar during May and June, as in the case of almost all currencies of the region, was the consequence of the announcement by Federal Reserve System regarding the gradual reduction of the rhythm of quantitative relaxation. In our case, we are also influenced by the negative opinion of the International Monetary Fund on our public economy. The National Bank of Serbia reacted to the increase of the depreciation pressures by intervening in the inter-bank currency market, as well as by raising the sterilization volume. The reduction of tensions in the international financial markets and the adoption of additional measures directed to ensure fiscal consolidation - which confirms the Government’s determination to ensure the long sustainability of public finances – contributed to stabilizing the currency exchange rate. Taking into consideration the fiscal consolidation measures that have been taken, the beginning of negotiations with the EU, the reduction of the foreign trade deficit and the stabilization of the world financial markets, sprowe expect a decrease of the pressure on the national currency in the coming period. As it done so far, the National Bank of Serbia will act in both directions, whenever it is necessary, i.e. by buying and by selling foreign currency, in order to reduce excessive daily oscillations in the exchange rate and to ensure the undisturbed operations of the currency market.

Last year we had a two-digit inflation. Will the National bank be able to restrain the raise of prices within the planned limits?

The year-to-year inflation rate will continue to diminish and until October it will certainly go back to the targeted limit of 4±1.5 percent, as a result of the adopted measures of monetary policy, the new agricultural season and the lower prices of food, the low aggregate demand and the incipient fiscal consolidation. However, the goal of the National Bank is not only to reduce inflation, but to keep it at a low level for a long time, because price stability and macroeconomic stability are the basis for the creation of a good business and investment environment, as well as for the growth of economic activity on sustainable bases.

How is the collaboration between economics sector of the Serbian Government and the National bank?

We have a good collaboration, first of all, with the Ministry of Finanes. We periodically exchange information, which helps us to take well measured decisions on time. However, in order to achieve inflation projections, the National Bank needs a strong price regulation program, which the Government has not disclosed yet. At long term, it would also be necessary to draft a measure program for the stabilization of the food market. Let me remind you something. During the second half of last year, for instance, the food prices contributed to the year-to-year inflation rate by 65%.

(Continue reading more in printed edition)

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